A week's a long time in politics: Rishi Sunak boost as economy surges back seven days after election drubbing

Analysis: Centrist Tory MPs rally around the PM after Rightwingers ditched coup plan
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A week is a long time in politics.

In the end, the Conservatives lost nearly 500 councillors, the West Midlands mayoralty, the Blackpool South by-election, and Sadiq Khan swept to victory against Susan Hall in the London mayoral contest.

His Government was hit on Wednesday with a second defection to Labour, as Dover MP Natalie Elphicke followed Dan Poulter in crossing the floor.

But come Friday May 10, Tory moods were dramatically improved.

If the latest GDP figures had showed economic growth of 0.4 per cent as expected by the City, Britain would have emerged from the shallow recession at the end of last year but still be on track for weakish growth.

But the 0.6 per cent jump caught Westminster and the Square Mile by surprise.

Centrist Tory MPs were quick to seize on the figures.

“The steady under fire approach that @RishiSunak and @Jeremy_Hunt have taken; delivering a clear plan for the economy and the people of our country. Construction will start to motor due to better weather for building,” tweeted North Dorset MP Simon Hoare, a local government minister.

Kevin Hollinrake, MP for Thirsk and Malton and postal affairs minister, added: “Cast your mind back 18 months - inflation 11.1%, UK economy predicted to shrink by 1.1%.

“Today, inflation now 3.2%, economy actually grew by 0.1% in 2023 and already 0.6% in 2024, real wages (after inflation) grown faster than prices for 9 consecutive months.

“Been a tough time but things are gradually improving. Stick with the plan.”

There is no doubting the good economic news, with the FTSE 100 also hitting a new high.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer went to Dover to trumpet his plan to tackle the “small boats” crisis in the Channel.

But the gloss for him has come off the defection of Ms Elphicke with a furious backlash from some Labour MPs aghast at her views on immigration, Brexit and sexual harassment, the latter for which she has apologised.

What is not clear, though, is how this week’s political and economic events translate into electoral outcomes.

The latest poll put Labour a whopping 30-points ahead of the Tories, with many others showing leads of more than 20 points.

They also suggest that around two thirds of the country want a change of Government.

Tory MPs are banking on the economy continuing to pick up, the cost-of-living crisis easing, and the PM getting Rwanda deportation flights off the ground, to give them a platform on which to fight the next general election, expected in the autumn.

None of these may happen.

But there are signs that they may and that the election could be more closely fought than the polls currently suggest.